Sweden’s leftwing Social Democrat party secured more seats than any other party in this week’s elections, but Magdalena Andersson, its popular leader, was forced to submit her resignation as prime minister on Thursday.
Instead, Ulf Kristersson of the centre-right Moderates will get the first chance to form a new government — the first rightwing government in eight years in the Nordic country — on the back of a rise in support for the far-right Sweden Democrats.
Kristersson, who faces an in-tray that includes not just an application to Nato but also the upcoming EU presidency, has to find common ground with a loose coalition including the resurgent Swedish Democrats. The bloc beat Andersson’s leftwing coalition by a slender three-seat majority in final results confirmed on Thursday.
Kristersson’s party lost ground, dropping to third place for the first time since 1976 with 19.1 per cent of the vote. The Sweden Democrats finished second on 20.5 per cent, becoming the most successful anti-immigration party in Europe.
“The result has weakened Ulf Kristersson. Even though the Sweden Democrats scored just 1 per cent more, symbolically it matters a lot,” said Ann-Cathrine Jungar, a specialist on radical right parties at Södertörn University.
Most political scientists expect the nationalists to gain national influence for the first time not by entering government, but by driving a hard bargain to become a support party in parliament to a rightwing coalition.
But in giving some level of influence to the Sweden Democrats, a party with roots in the neo-Nazi movement, Kristersson is following in the footsteps of recent rightwing leaders in Norway, Finland and Denmark, all of whom have had nationalist groups in government or as support parties for rightwing governments.
He will now start negotiating with the Sweden Democrats along with his close ally the Christian Democrats and the Liberals to form a coalition in the coming weeks.
Jenny Madestam, associate professor at Swedish Defence University, said the Sweden Democrats will try to “get the most out of the position as second biggest party”, complicating matters for Kristersson.
“It will be difficult,” she added. “The Sweden Democrats are in a position to put heavy pressure on Kristersson in terms of reforms but also positions. Most likely they want to stay outside the government but instead get a lot of reforms in return.”
After the last elections in 2018, it took the Social Democrats a record 134 days to patch together a government that struggled to last a full term. The leftwing government was forced twice to govern with a rightwing budget and regularly won votes by the slimmest of margins.
Rightwing officials and commentators say they expect government formation to be smoother this time, as the four parties involved agree on many policies and campaigned together. The biggest obstacle is the mutual distrust between the Liberals and the Sweden Democrats.
“I don’t think the problem is huge. The leftwing wants to portray it as the two parties hating each other because they want us to fail,” said Carolin Dahlman, a rightwing author and commentator. “But when you look at specific topics that this government has to solve on crime, immigration and the economy, they have similar positions.”
A rightwing government is likely to take a tough approach to law and order, after Sweden went from one of the lowest levels of deadly shootings in Europe to the highest within a decade. It is also likely to take a highly restrictive view on immigration, which the Sweden Democrats have long blamed for an increase in gang crime. In addition, it would back a revival of nuclear power in Sweden to boost its electricity generation.
But there are differences among the parties on issues such as unemployment benefits — Kristersson favours cuts while the more populist Sweden Democrats want to boost some measures — as well as cultural issues such as public service television.
Dahlman said she expected “bumps on the road” due to the coalition’s small majority but that all the rightwing parties should understand that, if they failed to agree, Andersson would return as prime minister.
Ultimately, the Sweden Democrats need to decide what they want to do, say political experts. On election night on Sunday, four senior party members told the Financial Times they thought the party should enter government, with one even suggesting they could demand the prime minister post. But they have toned down their rhetoric to suggest they were open to all possibilities.
“The Sweden Democrats don’t want responsibility. They want to sit on the sidelines and be able to complain and push their politics. If they would be part of the government, people would say they are responsible for things, and that’s uncomfortable for them,” Dahlman said.
For now, Kristersson, both a winner and loser in these elections, is talking of bringing people together and creating a government for all Swedes. But first he has to form a government and handle the emboldened nationalist party.
“Our voters are sending a signal that they can’t be ignored,” said Aron Emilsson, a Sweden Democrat MP. “They expect we will have an influence on immigration, integration, law and order, energy matters.”
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