Far-right disorder presents double-edged crisis for Keir Starmer

Good morning. The prime minister’s tough talk on law and order yesterday failed to quell unrest, as fresh violence erupted on the streets last night and more far-right protests are planned for tomorrow.

The disorder that has dominated headlines for seven days running since the Southport mass stabbing is shaping up to be Keir Starmer’s first big test in government — and it’s one that is playing to his strengths but which may yet highlight his weaknesses.

Order of the day

Before winning the election, Starmer was all too aware of the risk of being blown off course by “events, dear boy” once in office. Indeed, it was fear of derailment that drove him to devise his five missions for government — a bid to keep his project on track over the medium term, while Sue Gray’s “shit list” was designed to boost awareness of, and mitigate against, a series of potential crises in the short term.

Violent unrest was not among the half dozen disasters-in-waiting identified on Labour’s risk register before polling day, but Starmer’s critics and admirers alike admit privately that if he has to grapple with an early predicament in Downing Street, he is well-placed to meet this particular one.

As a former director of public prosecutions — who oversaw the fast-tracked jailing of almost 1,000 people in the aftermath of the London riots in 2011, no less — a domestic law and order challenge is right in Starmer’s wheelhouse. He knows the levers available and the people who will pull them, and he has focused heavily since arriving in No 10 on prisons and law enforcement.

His confidence on this terrain grants him a political advantage. “The riots have given Starmer a chance to look prime ministerial,” a Tory insider grumbled to me yesterday, conceding the new PM has projected an air of authority and grip as he vows that rioters will face the full force of the law.

Another Conservative MP said that the timing of the disorder — when the Commons is in recess and the main opposition party is looking inwards — has meanwhile allowed Starmer to swerve stronger criticism and co-ordinated demands for more hardline measures.

None of which is to ignore the fact that while the prime minister has landed a strong message on meting out justice, the jury is still out on whether he can deliver on it.

For now the government insists it has plenty of jail cell capacity to deal with an influx of rioters being expedited through the courts and held on remand, but today the union for prison governors warned that a surge of inmates equivalent to that seen 13 years ago would “cripple and destabilise” England’s prison system.

Moreover, while home secretary Yvette Cooper has promised “swift justice” for those involved in criminal unrest in the past week — and the first suspected rioters appeared in court yesterday — defendants in some parts of the country will not face a judge for weeks. Questions also persist about the sustainability of high policing levels.

Nonetheless, Starmer has generated an air of action in response to the unrest. He has been quick to detail how his administration has put in place 70 more prosecutors, expanded a “mutual aid” scheme between police forces, and rolled out new emergency security measures for mosques.

Such moves chime with what we already know about the new prime minister: he is an organised thinker and someone who likes to grapple with process and structures.

The next part required of him holds significantly more jeopardy: the political vision and leadership to heal division and bring communities together. Starmer has yet to prove his ability to truly inspire the electorate, with his stunning election win — in large part a corollary of voter antipathy towards the Tories.

It remains to be seen whether he can pull off the kind of national leadership demanded by the moment — meeting head on those seeking to justify or minimise the violence and emphasising the positive values that unite the country.

So far, the new Labour administration has condemned the far-right “thugs” behind the violent disorder, while being at pains not to criticise people with “genuine concerns” about immigration.

It’s a perilous balancing act that will only get harder as Starmer faces growing censure from both ends of the political spectrum.

On the right is Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who has hit out at the PM’s “faltering” approach to the disorder that he claims is adding to a sense of “injustice” among activists concerned about “two-tier policing” — the impression that forces deal more harshly with some protesters than others.

On the left is Jeremy Corbyn and the four other pro-Palestinian independent MPs — whose escalating co-operation is striking — who have accused the government of “pandering to those who have helped foment the ugly racism behind these protests” by failing to adequately call out the anti-migrant and anti-Muslim sentiments “driving this violence”.

Starmer’s response in the days, and possibly weeks, ahead is likely to be a defining early moment of his premiership. It is a double-edged crisis that could reveal both his ability and limits as a leader.

Now try this

In memory of a dear family member who was a big fan, I’ve been listening to legendary British folk singer and guitarist Richard Thompson on repeat in the past week. If you don’t know his music, give “Beeswing” or “1952 Vincent Black Lightning” a go. 

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