Not bad enough to finish off Boris Johnson, not good enough to show that Labour is on its way back to government. This is the simple early analysis from the first results in the UK’s local elections.
A major caveat must be added: the results in these contests come in waves. While the results from those English councils which counted overnight are now in, a second tranche will come later today and, together with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, these areas include some important Labour targets in England which might change the overall picture.
But five points emerge from the first wave:
1) Labour owns London. Labour’s grip on the capital is extraordinary. Westminster and Wandsworth, flagship Tory councils, were totemic wins. Taking back Barnet, with its significant Jewish population, will offer Sir Keir Starmer the encouragement that people believe he has tackled the anti-Semitism which scarred Labour under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
2) Unfortunately for Labour, London is not England. Outside the capital, Labour’s results are much spottier. The political scientist Sir John Curtice says its vote share is slightly down outside London. There is some progress — Southampton and Cumberland being two highlights — and some modest steps forward in some “red wall” areas like Dudley or Grimsby. But overall this is not the performance of a party on its way back to power at Westminster, especially given both the cost of living crisis beginning to bite and the Partygate saga damaging the prime minister. There is not enough to give Starmer momentum to strengthen his leadership or give voters the reason to take another look.
3) Bad is a relative term for Boris Johnson. These are bad results for the Conservatives. The party has already lost over 100 councillors and that number will get higher. The wipeout in London is grim and the Liberal Democrat advances in the south will cause some flutters. But compared to other midterm local elections, the losses will not be seen as remarkable. London was already written off, but while there are odd cracks in those red wall seats in the north and midlands there is no significant sign of voters turning from the Tories in numbers that would truly alarm party strategists. The upshot is that those Tories who want to oust Johnson as leader do not have the ammunition from these elections to do so. If anything, he can argue that the results show he can ride out Partygate because there is no enthusiasm for Labour in the country. Johnson will be breathing easier after seeing these early results. New shocks may emerge but the odds on him leading the party into the next election have shortened.
4) Lib Dem progress. This is the party with the most to celebrate so far. It is making gains in the places it needs. This perhaps is what should worry Tories most: a Lib Dem revival in its key southern target constituencies is key to denying the government its majority at the general election.
5) The results will shore up the Tories current rightward political strategy. Johnson’s party is hanging on in the Brexit-backing seats they gained in 2019’s general election. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are making further inroads in Remain-voting areas. While southern Tories will be rightly worried, the results will encourage those party strategists arguing that the party policy needs to be more distinctively conservative. This will entrench those arguing for earlier tax cuts and for policies to emphasise the political divide. Issues that alarm southern Tories, like perhaps planning reform, may be watered down but this set of results will firm up the instincts of campaign chiefs that their current strategy is the right one.
That said there is little respite for the Tories. Partygate inquiries continue, and more important, the economic fundamentals point to sustained inflation and quite possibly recession. Voters are starting to feel poorer and this is only going to get worse. But on the basis of today, Conservatives and Johnson will still feel the next election is entirely winnable.
robert.shrimsley@ft.com
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