For two weeks since Hamas’s political leader was assassinated in Iran, the Islamic republic has kept the region on edge.
Almost every day, a new threat emerges from one of its senior political or military officials vowing to punish Israel for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh while he was on an official visit to Tehran. The powerful Revolutionary Guard has announced new military exercises, airlines have rescheduled flights and those likely to be affected have had time to ponder how Iran might respond — but with few clues as to how or when.
And this is exactly how Iran’s leadership wants it, according to a regime insider. “There may be no attack at all, or there could be one tonight,” he said. “Waiting for death is more difficult than death itself.”
He continued: “Iran has launched a psychological warfare campaign to keep Israel’s military, security, and logistical capabilities on edge, denying residents of the occupied territories any sense of calm.”
The challenge for Tehran is how to respond robustly to appease its hardline constituency and the regional militants it backs while avoiding the direct conflict with Israel and its ally the US that it has long sought to evade. The regime’s primary objective is the survival of the Islamic republic and addressing the economic hardships that have fuelled public dissent.
Amid a sense that retaliation may be close, many Iranians are troubled by the looming possibility of war with Israel, a conflict they see as both unnecessary and potentially devastating to an economy on the brink.
At the same time, life continues as normal. Some say dealing with various kinds of crises is integrated into their daily lives while others wonder if the country’s military and intelligence abilities are strong enough to fend off greater threats in the future.
Moeen, 28, a travel agent, questioned the idea of “a Shia nation gambling on war by avenging a Sunni politician [Haniyeh]”, in reference to the main two denominations in Islam, while expressing agony that the killing on Iranian territory damaged the country’s military and intelligence credibility.
“Iran will have to decide on whether to respond directly or through its allied militias,” he said of Tehran’s “axis of resistance”, which includes Hizbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. “Otherwise, a passive behaviour will embolden Israel to target very senior Iranian military commanders next time,” Moeen added.
Reformist politician Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar said he thought Iran needed a period of stability to allow the new government of President Masoud Pezeshkian to establish itself, adding that the country had been “in limbo” since then-president Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May.
He also said the uncertainty meant it had “already been costly for Israel to stay in a state of alert. Iran speaks of revenge rather than a direct attack, which could involve an assassination or actions designed to disrupt Israel’s maritime trade.”
Iran and Israel have been on a collision course since Hamas launched its October 7 attack on southern Israel, which triggered war in Gaza. Hamas is also part of the resistance axis, and although western intelligence services do not believe Tehran had direct involvement in October 7, the events sparked a wave of hostilities that have raised Middle East tensions to unprecedented levels and fuelled international fears of a full-on regional conflict.
After Israel killed several Revolutionary Guard commanders in an attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, Tehran responded by launching hundreds of missiles and drones into Israeli airspace, most of which were intercepted by Israel and its allies, notably the US. That attack was clearly telegraphed and Iran claimed its actions were intended to demonstrate its readiness for direct confrontation with Israel should it go further.
Four months on, the killing of Haniyeh in state-provided accommodation has taken tensions to new heights. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied the assassination, as is its usual practice in such cases. Nonetheless, Iran has accused it of orchestrating the killing and warned that the country had again crossed a line, making retaliation inevitable. Diplomats say Iran is keeping its cards close to its chest.
Iranian analysts say the Haniyeh killing was all the more humiliating because it occurred in the capital just hours after Haniyeh attended had Pezeshkian’s inauguration. The new president took power last month with a promise to resume nuclear talks with western powers and secure relief from US sanctions.
The US has sent back-channel messages to Iran urging it not to escalate and warning that a retaliation is not in Tehran’s interests, while Washington has built up its military presence in the region to help defend Israel.
Washington, along with Qatar and Egypt, is pushing for a new round of talks in Doha or Cairo on Thursday, hoping to broker a deal between Israel and Hamas to end the war and secure the release of hostages in Gaza.
A statement by the Iranian mission to the UN on Friday hinted that the Gaza ceasefire talks could impact the timing of any response but the message was typically ambiguous.
“Our priority is to establish a lasting ceasefire in Gaza; any agreement accepted by Hamas will also be recognised by us,” Iran’s statement said. While it said the country’s retaliation was “a matter totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire”, it added that “our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire”.
The regime insider said that while Iran would “keep its finger on the trigger”, it would also want to “see if Israel will first compromise on Gaza, forcing Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire, and second, if the US and western states will return to negotiations to revive the nuclear accord”.
Yet Iranian politicians are wary that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might benefit from dragging Iran into a war that could prompt US intervention.
Ahmad Dastmalchian, Iran’s former ambassador to Lebanon, said Tehran believed that Netanyahu had tied his political survival to a regional war.
“He will do all he can to drag the region into a bloody fight,” he said, while adding that Iran and its proxy forces “know better than to play that game”.
They would “certainly respond”, he said, “without falling into Netanyahu’s trap”.
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