England’s mayoral elections this week mark a milestone for the country’s devolution agenda, experts have said, as candidates and voters eye up an agenda increasingly distinct from Westminster politics.
On May 2, 10 mayors will be elected, many of them for the first time, in areas covering a record 44 per cent of the population.
The votes take place against a backdrop of fevered speculation about when exactly a general election, expected sometime this year, might take place and how it might play out.
But in what has long been one of the west’s most centralised countries, experts argue the races may reveal less about Westminster politics and more about electoral priorities outside of the South East, while candidates deliberately eschew the political framing provided by their national parties.
“Generally mayoral elections are about the person,” said Peter Kellner, former president of pollsters YouGov, pointing to the brands built up in recent years by “high-profile” figureheads, such as the Tory mayor in Tees Valley, Ben Houchen.
Houchen, like other mayors, has often pursued policies that look different to those promoted by his party.
“This is very familiar in American elections for governor,” added Kellner. “Somebody builds a personal vote which is quite different from what their parties will do in either the House [of Representatives] or presidential elections.”
While London has had a mayor since 2000, outside the capital such figureheads were only introduced across larger areas from 2017 onwards, as ministers looked to boost struggling regional economies.
In the past 18 months, further devolution deals have been signed in quick succession, meaning that on Thursday three new mayors, in the north east, York and North Yorkshire, and the East Midlands, will be elected for the first time.
Akash Paun, who leads on devolution at the Institute for Government think-tank, said that media and voter interest in this year’s mayoral elections marked a milestone in process.
“I do feel this is the first time when a lot of people really are recognising the way that governance in England has changed,” he said.
Although Westminster’s focus has often viewed the tighter races as a general election predictor, he said, “these are important jobs in their own right in their regions”.
As a collective, the 10 mayors had the potential to be both powerful and “problematic” for any government, he noted.
Public transport has been particularly front and centre of most mayoral campaigns, partly an acknowledgment that outside of the capital, long-term under-investment in infrastructure is well understood by voters.
That concern goes hand-in-hand with the powers permitted to mayors, which include increasingly significant levels of devolved transport investment and the ability to re-regulate their bus networks.
“I think transport probably is the biggest single theme in most of these places in terms of what mayors and candidates are talking about,” said Paun, adding that this “probably isn’t surprising”.
IfG analysis of the budgets overseen by mayors shows that transport is “the biggest single item — and often by a long, long way”, he said, adding that it did therefore “dominate” what mayors can do.
In 2023, Labour’s mayor in Greater Manchester Andy Burnham became the first to take the local bus network under public control after almost 40 years of deregulation, a move that has so far proved popular.
His Labour counterparts in Liverpool, South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire are now promising to do the same. I do feel this is the first time when a lot of people really are recognising the way that governance in England has changed. These are important jobs in their own right in their regions
Meanwhile, in the Tees Valley, Houchen has made a series of big-ticket transport pledges using money secured from the axing of HS2’s northern leg last year.
Andy Westwood, professor of government practice at the University of Manchester, said the proliferation of mayors and the resulting focus on regional growth issues represented progress.
“This is one thing you probably have to say has been working quite well,” he said of the current government’s “levelling up” agenda, designed to rebalance and decentralise England.
The “high command” within Labour had also agreed that mayors would be “taken forward” should they win a general election, he added.
“Having that institutional stability is a rare moment in English regional economic thinking,” he said.
Of the contests taking place this week, the fates of Conservatives Andy Street and Houchen will be the most closely watched in Westminster. Both face tight battles to hold on in the face of the Tories’ waning popularity — and both have run on platforms distinct from their party in Westminster.
Street in particular has set himself apart from colleagues in London, telling the Financial Times last month that local delivery should trump culture wars.
Political consultant Greg Cook, former head of political strategy for Labour, said mayoral races were particularly hard to predict for pollsters, however, due to the smaller sample sizes outside Greater London and potentially low turnout.
“Localised factors”, he added, were also “hard for any poll to pick up”.
There are key local issues in the mix this year, including the collapse of Birmingham council in Street’s territory, fears train manufacturer Alstom could close in the East Midlands and an ongoing row over finances at Teesworks, the huge regeneration project overseen by Houchen.
Cook said there was “a sense”, particularly in races featuring more high-profile candidates such as Burnham, Houchen, Street and London’s incumbent Sadiq Khan, that in such elections voters are “prepared to deviate” from their usual voting patterns.
Mayoral politics was “taking on a life of its own”, he said, adding: “I think it’s a new type of dynamic.”
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