Conservative leadership contests are unedifying affairs and this year’s is particularly on brand. From venomous gossip about the contenders to the crafty game of undermining a dangerous rival by mobilising support for weaker opponents, the 358 Tory MPs deciding the next UK prime minister are playing politics at its dirtiest.
Whoever succeeds Boris Johnson will be hemmed in by the 2019 manifesto, soaring inflation, a likely recession, war in Ukraine and a sorely divided party. The most interesting candidates, meanwhile, are the ones least likely to win: Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch.
On paper, Tugendhat’s prospects look weak. Although chair of the House of Commons foreign affairs select committee, he has never been a minister. An earlier career in the military, serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, demonstrates a sense of duty. But unlike many Tories, he exudes a warm authenticity.
Taking first-mover advantage, Tugendhat captured the left flank of the Tory parliamentary party and also a significant number of pro-Brexit MPs from the north of England. Pledging a “clean start”, he has found favour with Conservatives who want a rapid shift from the chaos of the Johnson era.
Until the mass ministerial walkouts last week, Badenoch was equalities minister, forging a reputation as a no-nonsense right winger with a strident tone on culture wars. That same clarity marks her leadership bid.
Few MPs thought Badenoch would go far — these candidacies are often vanity exercises or a bid for a future ministerial job. But the endorsement of former levelling up secretary Michael Gove and his junior minister Neil O’Brien, two of the most thoughtful Tories, markedly boosted her credentials.
In personality, Tugendhat and Badenoch could not be more different. But what makes them refreshing is their embrace of policy. Whereas the leading contenders, ex-chancellor Rishi Sunak and trade minister Penny Mordaunt, aim to say nothing at all, these outsiders have taken the opposite attitude, pitching mini-manifestos from opposing ideological perspectives.
Badenoch, for example, has pledged to junk the now-delayed Online Harms Bill, which she lambasted as legislating for “hurt feelings” — a reference to measures to tackle “legal but harmful” content. She has also pledged to break up the Treasury, handing economic growth to a new office of Number 10.
Citing security as a priority, Tugendhat has pledged to take defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, slash fuel duty by 10p and scrap the recent national insurance rise. His ten-year economic plan focuses on boosting energy security.
The race is hugely volatile, but it is unlikely either will be the next prime minister. In the coming days, the campaigns acknowledge (very privately) that they are likely to row in behind Sunak, Mordaunt or foreign secretary Liz Truss. But their level of support has assured them places in the cabinet.
And the rise of Badenoch and Tugendhat confirms one of Johnson’s worst errors. From the day he entered Downing Street, the prime minister never appointed the cabinet the country deserved. Talent was left languishing on the backbenches or rotting in lowly ministerial roles.
Their success also suggest the Tories are not yet intellectually dead. Nearly every candidate has links to Onward, a think-tank founded after the party’s 2017 election to tackle the lack of fresh ideas. It has worked: Sunak, Truss and Mordaunt have given policy speeches at its events, Tugendhat sits on its advisory board, as did Badenoch.
Winning a fifth general election will be a historic challenge for the Tories — not least after this bruising succession. But it can take heart at the flickers of intellectual revival. The party could yet win on policies, even if it is far from clear which leader should deliver them.
sebastian.payne@ft.com
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