UK population to rise by 5mn to 72.5mn by 2032

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The UK’s population will rise by about 5mn to 72.5mn in the decade to 2032, according to new data, driven by more international migration than previously projected.

Over the 10 years to mid-2032, the population is projected to rise by 4.9mn, or 7.3 per cent, from an estimated 67.6mn to 72.5mn, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.

The increase is projected to come entirely from net migration, while the natural change — the difference between births and deaths — is projected to be around zero.

The ONS said it now believed long-term international migration would be greater than in previous projections. Its latest forecasts also assume lower fertility and an increase in life expectancy.

James Robards of the ONS said the forecasts were “based on current and past trends, and aren’t forecasts about what may or may not happen in the future”.

He said the latest projections also highlighted an increasingly ageing population, with the number of people aged over 85 projected to nearly double to 3.3mn by 2047. “This is in part because of the ageing of the baby boom generation, as well as general increases in life expectancy,” Robards said.

The ONS clarifies that national population projections are not forecasts and do not directly account for recent and future policy or economic changes. They are based on an assumption of long-term net international migration of 340,000 people per year from mid-2028 onwards, up from previous projections of 315,000.

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy, King’s College London, said: “These projections are almost certainly overstated since they do not appear to take account of the sharp fall in net migration that is already under way, as we know from the separate statistics on visas issued.”

ONS figures published last November showed net migration to the UK exceeded 900,000 in the year to June 2024, the highest annual total on record, but fell by 20 per cent in the 12 months to June 2024.

Portes added that the ONS figures published on Tuesday assume that fertility will stabilise “whereas in recent years it has been falling significantly”. The ONS now assumes a long-term fertility rate of 1.45, down from 1.59 in the previous projections.

The latest figures showed that the fertility rate in England and Wales fell to 1.44 children per woman in 2023, the lowest since comparable data began in 1938.

The number of children aged under 15 years is projected to decrease by 797,000, from 12.4mn to 11.6mn, by mid-2032, according to the ONS.

On the other hand, the number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase by 1.7mn over the same period, or 14 per cent, from 12.0mn to 13.7mn, taking into account the planned increases in state pension age to 67 years for both sexes.

The UK’s projected population growth contrasts with the population already shrinking in many countries, including Italy, Japan, and China. The German population is also expected to start shrinking in the next few years, according to UN population forecasts.

In the outlook to 2047, the ONS said that “net migration is projected to be the only source of population growth in the UK over the next 25 years”.